Elliot Wave

A lot has been made of the Elliot Wave principle and its application to the stock market, particularly in light of the notariety of the theory's devotees, like Robert Prechter, David Weis, and others.

I believe that a more fair assesment of the Elliot wave principle is that it is a hypothesis that attempts to explain the behavior of the larger forces in nature, ie. the growth pattern of biological organisms, the behavior of celestial bodies, etc.

I think the great contribution made by Ralph Nelson Elliot (who, BTW, was not the originator of the theory as I described it above, and, to the best of my knowledge, did not claim credit for its discovery) was that he identified mass human psychology and the behavior that resulted therefrom as a force that was subject to the same hypothesis. Elliot treated the behavior of the stock market as a reflection of this mass psychology.

For those who do not know about the Elliot wave principle, it states that the mood of the masses shifts from one of relative optimism to relative pessimism, and that these swings have a regularity that makes them predictable. When people are relatively optimistic about the future, they do many things, among them, purchasing stock. Conversely, when they are pessimistic, they sell.

When you look outside the stock market itself, at social history, you find that the Elliot wave hypothesis seems to have a great deal of validity. What is less clear is how well it functions as a short-term predictive tool, which is where I think many people misapply the idea.

I am not affiliated with any commercial service that promotes these ideas, but if you are interested, I encourage you to read the works (especially the special reports) of Robert Prechter and A.J. Frost, in addition to R.N. Elliot. Mr. Prechter has republished a collection of Elliot's papers in a book that should be in most major libraries.

I have tested thousands of opportunities and Only One still provides a Rock Solid income. To see Click Here

c 2005

Elliot Wave Theory to Home Page Site Map